Trump’s victory likely to improve US-Egyptian ties

Sunday 20/11/2016
From Sisi’s perspective, Trump represents anti-Barack Obama

WASHINGTON - Tellingly, reportedly the first foreign leader to congratulate US Presi­dent-elect Donald Trump was Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Although the two had met only once, they seem to share a similar outlook about threats facing Egypt, the Middle East and the larger international community.
From Sisi’s perspective, Trump represents the anti-Barack Obama and the anti-Hillary Clinton. Much of the hostility towards these lead­ing Democrats stems from the time of Muslim Brotherhood leader Mu­hammad Morsi’s election as Egyp­tian president in 2012 and the af­termath of his ouster from power in 2013.
In the summer of 2012, when it appeared that Morsi had won the presidential vote, the Egyp­tian military was reluctant to an­nounce the winner; earlier, the ruling military council had issued a decree stripping the presidency of real power. Clinton, then US sec­retary of State, urged the Egyptian military to respect the outcome of the election and publicly declared that the military should return to a “purely national security role” — meaning it should go back to the barracks.
The following summer, Obama, as US president, criticised the se­vere crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood by Sisi, then Defence minister, and the security services and two months later suspended a large portion of US military aid to Egypt.
These statements and policies of Clinton and Obama fed conspiracy theories in Egypt that Washington supported the Brotherhood and aimed to weaken Egypt. Although Obama restored US military aid in March 2015, distrust in Cairo about US motives lingered. For its part, the Obama administration did not afford Sisi a White House visit be­cause of his government’s arrest of dissidents, journalists and human rights activists.
Differing attitudes towards Egypt were evident when Clinton and Trump had separate meetings with Sisi during the opening session of the UN General Assembly in Sep­tember in New York. Clinton, while praising counterterrorism coopera­tion with Egypt, emphasised the need for it to “respect… the rule of law and human rights” and raised the issue of an Egyptian-American non-governmental organisation leader under detention.
Trump, on the other hand, said his administration would be “a loy­al friend, not simply an ally” and that he would support Egypt’s fight against “radical Islamic terrorism”. Trump pledged to support legisla­tion in the US Congress that would designate the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organisation. (Obama has said he would veto such leg­islation.) Much to Sisi’s pleasure, Trump did not raise human rights issues in their talk.
Following the meeting, Trump praised Sisi as a “fantastic guy” who has taken a “tough approach” towards terrorists, “much different from” that of the Obama adminis­tration. When asked during a CNN interview about Trump’s threat to ban Muslims from entering the United States, Sisi dismissed it as merely campaign talk. “Actual government will be something dif­ferent and will be subject to many factors,” Sisi said.
Trump and Sisi appear to share a similar benign view of Russia, par­ticularly towards the Syrian crisis, which probably helped to cement their friendship. Egypt has avoid­ed criticising Russia’s role in Syria, which has caused tensions with Saudi Arabia, and maintains rela­tions with the Assad government out of concern that Islamist groups could emerge victorious in Syria if their power is not checked.
Trump avoided criticising Russia during his election campaign and said it “would be great” if Russia and the United States would fight the Islamic State (ISIS) together.
Though Sisi’s supporters in Egypt have praised Trump as being a “strong leader” who will more vigorously support Egypt’s anti-terrorism campaign, his detrac­tors raised alarms. Egyptians who remain sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood denounced Trump as a “hater of Islam and Muslims”.
There is concern among Egyp­tian human rights and democracy activists that Trump will neglect Egypt’s human rights record. Longtime activist Saad Eddin Ibra­him said he fears there will be “no defenders” of human rights in the Trump White House.
Indeed, Sisi might even be invit­ed to the White House in the early months of the Trump administra­tion as a way for the new US presi­dent to signal support for tough, authoritarian leaders in their fight against ISIS and like-minded groups.
While an embrace of Sisi fits Trump’s worldview, particularly with regards to terrorism, there may be downsides. Giving Sisi carte blanche to clamp down on his crit­ics is likely to build more societal pressures for a political upheaval, especially now that Egypt is under­taking painful economic reforms to conform to its deal with the Inter­national Monetary Fund.
Instead of the safety-valve ap­proach — allowing the opposition to let off political steam — the poli­cy of indulgence could be counter­productive for Egypt’s long-term stability.