Regional powers grow uneasy with Mahmoud Abbas

Sunday 30/10/2016
Race to succeed Abbas has begun

RAMALLAH - Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other Arab states are ap­plying pressure on Pales­tinian President Mahmoud Abbas to resolve divisions in his Fatah party and with the rival Hamas movement amid concerns about whether Palestinian democ­racy is under threat.

Neighbouring countries, diplo­mats and major funders said they fear festering divisions could lead to conflict and the lack of a clear transition process raises questions about what would happen if Ab­bas, 81 years old and in power since 2005 despite his mandate expiring, were to die in office.

In a non-binding paper circulated recently, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jor­dan and the United Arab Emirates made recommendations for ad­dressing splits that have deepened over the past year, while strength­ening Palestinian leadership and trying to keep the stalled peace process with Israel alive.

“Efforts to unite Fatah and em­power it are aimed at balancing the Palestinian internal arena and this falls under the responsibilities of the head of the movement, Abu Mazen,” the two-page paper said, referring to Abbas by his nom de guerre.

Among the recommendations was having “free and fair” elections for parliament and the presidency by July 2017, although there are no indications that will happen. They would be the first parliamentary elections since January 2006.

In a clear signal of its growing frustration, Saudi Arabia, which usually provides about $20 million a month to the Palestinian budget, has not made any contributions since April, according to the Pales­tinian Finance Ministry’s website.

Palestinian officials say Riyadh is withholding the funds because it wants to see progress on unity within Fatah and with Hamas, the Islamist group that controls Gaza.

With the United States, the Eu­ropean Union and individual EU members having cut contribu­tions, the Palestinian budget faces a severe shortfall, which the World Bank puts at about $600 million for 2016.

Asked about the pressure from Arab states, Abbas’s spokesman Na­bil Abu Rudaineh, declined to com­ment directly but said the focus of Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), which Abbas also leads, has always been on Pal­estinian unity.

Mouin Rabbani, a senior fellow with the Institute for Palestine Studies, said it was increasingly clear the race to succeed Abbas had begun, with several rivals position­ing themselves for the day he is gone.

Abbas faces several challenges. Opinion polls indicate Palestinians say they have lost confidence in his leadership.

At the same time, factions within Fatah are growing more agitated, with rival groups emerging ahead of a party congress set for late No­vember, the first since 2009.

Mohammed Dahlan, a former Fa­tah security chief who fell out with Abbas and now lives in self-im­posed exile in the UAE, is a staunch Abbas critic who retains influence within Fatah’s revolutionary coun­cil and central committee.

Some senior Fatah figures want Abbas to reconcile with Dahlan but the president shows no such incli­nation. At the party congress, Abbas is expected to push for the election of a new central committee and rev­olutionary council — the equivalent of Fatah’s parliament — that would be free of Dahlan loyalists.

Dahlan, 55, said that if Abbas did try to push such changes through, it would be “illegitimate”.

It “will represent the most dan­gerous split in the history of Fatah and will be regarded as a palace coup,” he said in written comments, adding that there were legitimate reasons to worry about a collapse in the democratic process.

“It is time to implement the will of the people and implement the law by electing a new leadership and not a new leader. There is a his­torical and national need to have parliament and presidential elec­tions,” he said.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in an analysis, described Fatah, which has domi­nated Palestinian politics for more than 50 years, as “tearing itself apart”, with worrying implications for the future.

There have been signs of unrest in West Bank refugee camps where Dahlan has a strong following.

Diplomats say Dahlan has good ties with Egypt as well as the Gulf states. Cairo sees him as a helpful interlocutor with Hamas in Gaza, where Dahlan is from, and as some­one with the energy and strength to shake up Palestinian politics.

Others, though, see Dahlan as the power behind the throne. Officials who have met him say he may act as a kingmaker, rather than a future Palestinian president, throwing his support behind another senior Fa­tah figure as leader.

Several names crop up in Pal­estinian and Israeli assessments, including Nasser al-Qudwa, the nephew of late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat; Jibril Rajoub, a for­mer security chief who heads the Palestine Football Association; and Majid Faraj, the head of Palestinian intelligence.

Yet the most popular Palestin­ian politician, according to opinion polls, remains Marwan Barghouti, a leader of the first and second up­risings against Israel who was con­victed of murder by an Israeli court in 2004 and is serving five life sen­tences.