New Turkish nationalist party could be challenge for Erdogan

November 19, 2017
Buoyed up by polls. Right-wing nationalist Meral Aksener (C), a former Turkish interior minister and deputy parliament speaker sings the national anthem during a meeting to announce the launch of her new party in Ankara, on October 25. (AFP)

Istanbul - A new nationalist party in Turkey could become a serious political chal­lenge for President Re­cep Tayyip Erdogan as voters complain about a slowing economy and rising corruption.
Erdogan’s ruling Justice and De­velopment Party (AKP) is facing lo­cal and parliamentary elections in 2019. That year also includes a pres­idential election that will decide whether Erdogan can obtain his goal of becoming head of state with full executive powers. While polls show that the AKP, in power since 2002, remains Turkey’s strongest political force, the creation of a new party could thwart Erdogan’s ambi­tions.
The Good Party, led by former Interior Minister Meral Aksener, is scoring well in opinion surveys, suggesting it could draw disgrun­tled right-wing voters from the AKP and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
As one of the few prominent women in Turkey’s male-dominat­ed political scene, Aksener joined the centre-right True Path Party (DYP) and served in the cabinet as interior minister (1996-97) before switching to the MHP.
Now she has launched her own organisation, which has become the source of much speculation in Turkey. A survey by the Gezici poll­ing firm has Aksener’s Good Party at nearly 20% of the vote, a result that, if true on Election Day, would make it the third strongest group in Turkey’s parliament and that could end the AKP’s domination of the chamber.
The Good Party enters the stage at a time many Turkish voters are looking for alternatives, pollster Murat Gezici said. “One-in-three AKP voters think Turkey needs a new party,” he said, referring to the results of his latest survey.
The poll also indicated that a ma­jority of MHP voters said they want a new political movement and that Aksener could be a serious chal­lenger to Erdogan in the presiden­tial election in two years. The sur­vey results suggested support for Aksener could keep Erdogan to less than 50% of the votes cast in the first round of the election and could force the president to face her in a second round.
Aksener, who studied history be­fore going into politics, is not hiding her ambition. When the audience at the launch of the Good Party on October 25 called her “prime min­ister” in celebratory chants, she re­sponded by saying that she would be president.
The Good Party is a staunchly right-wing group competing with the AKP and the MHP for conserva­tive voters and could profit from growing scepticism towards the rul­ing party.
“We don’t know much about the new party but Aksener sure is bet­ter than Tayyip,” Rahfet, an Istanbul taxi driver who would only give his first name, said in reference to Er­dogan. “There is corruption every­where.”
Erdogan, in power since becom­ing prime minister in 2003 and pres­ident in 2014, is Turkey’s most pow­erful leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded the republic almost a century ago. Turkey en­joyed an unprecedented economic boom under Erdogan and the AKP but a wave of persecutions of sus­pected enemies of the state since a failed coup in 2016 led to com­plaints of a repressive atmosphere in the country.
Turkey’s relations with tradition­al partners in Europe and the Unit­ed States are strained. At the same time, inflation has risen to 12% and unemployment is at 10% overall, with one-in-five younger Turks out of work.
In a sign of the rising political discontent, almost half of Turkish voters rejected Erdogan’s plans for an executive presidency in a refer­endum this year. Results showed that voters in the country’s biggest cities had turned against him. The president responded with a purge of local officials that included forced resignations of the AKP mayors of Istanbul and Ankara.
Aksener told delegates at the founding ceremony of her party that Turkey was suffering from a “dysfunctional opposition and a political structure that is no longer democratic.” She accused Erdogan and the AKP of using the judiciary for political ends and said the coun­try was “tired” of the current gov­ernment.
That sentiment is shared by Turks who are concerned that the country is on the wrong track. Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim recently had to defend himself after the publication of documents of the so-called Paradise Papers revealed that his family had investments in Malta that could be used to evade Turkish taxes. The opposition called for an investigation.
Gezici’s poll found that approxi­mately 12% of AKP supporters and more than 22% of MHP voters might go for Aksener’s party in the next election. If that holds in the elec­tion, the MHP, an AKP ally, could drop below the 10% threshold that a Turkish party needs to cross to win seats in parliament.
MHP leader Devlet Bahceli called for an abolition of the 10% condi­tion, a move seen by many as an in­direct admission that the MHP sees its support waning.

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