Kurdish independence prospect cements a Turkish-Iranian alliance

Sunday 20/08/2017

As the clock ticks to­wards the referen­dum on Iraqi Kurdis­tan’s independence, tensions mount rap­idly in neighbouring countries. Both Teh­ran and Ankara will do their utmost to have the September vote blocked, annulled or at least postponed in­definitely.

This joint stand became clear dur­ing a top-level Iranian military visit to Ankara by the chief of the general staff of the Iranian armed forces, General Mohammad Bagheri, es­corted by the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Border Protection Troops. It was the first time since 1979 that an Iranian top general visited Tur­key. The meeting exemplified how significantly the regional balances have been rattled.

”If such a thing happens, it will trigger a new tension and will affect the neighbouring countries nega­tively” Bagheri said about the up­coming Kurdish vote. ”Therefore, the two countries insist that it shall not be possible and should not be conducted.”

He added that Ankara and Tehran had agreed on joint operations and intelligence sharing. This is very bad news, not only for Kurdistan Re­gional Government (KRG) President Masoud Barzani, who is banking on the referendum securing his future, but also for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the second most powerful player on the Iraqi Kurd­ish stage after Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which is the engine behind the referendum. Reports have circulated that the Iranian military warned the KRG about severe consequences should the vote go on.

Barzani in June announced plans for a referendum on independence on September 25 with voting ex­pected in Kirkuk and three other areas. Kurdish officials have said the vote wouldn’t lead to an auto­matic declaration of independence but would improve the Kurds’ posi­tion in talks with the government in Baghdad regarding self-determina­tion.

It is apparent that Tehran is on the same page as Ankara about the anxiety of a declaration of Kurdish independence. Both countries have large Kurdish populations: There are about 8 million Kurds in Iran and more than 14 million in Tur­key. Both groups have, throughout decades, acted to carve a path to in­dependence or secession and have been watching with intense atten­tion how their brethren in Iraq and Syria push for what they have been dreaming of.

Both Ankara and Tehran see Kurdish self-rule as a threat to their foreign policy. Ankara is also con­cerned that a yes vote would trig­ger a new independence/secession push among its own Kurds. Tehran, however, might have even more to worry about. It was obviously irked by the Israeli government’s support for the Iraqi Kurdish intentions. A partition of Iraq through a vote would weaken its hand by a dimin­ished Baghdad and demolish a new regional policy architecture it had built as the Syrian crisis deepened.

What can happen if Barzani does not blink? His administration made it clear to Iranians that the vote was decided collectively by the major political forces in Iraqi Kurdistan. There was only the exception of the Gorran Movement, which argued that the referendum must have a mandate from parliament, and Bar­zani can take new steps to put it in play, which could cause further trouble if the PUK were to pull out of the decision.

Turkey, on the other hand, may be happy to build on the Iranian frus­trations and wait a little more before intervening to call Barzani to post­pone the vote. This would leave Bar­zani to persuade Ankara and Tehran that the result is non-binding and they both need a strong leader like him with the promise that he would not take any drastic steps against their basic national interests.

The more dramatic scenario is that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan goes along with “severe measures” — as Iranians expressed it to Iraqi KRG — simply because Kurdish advances in gen­eral in the region pose a much more serious threat to his political aims than keeping a distance from Syr­ian President Bashar Assad. Iran will continue to back him no matter what.

There will be a lot of interesting manoeuvring related to the Kurdish referendum in the coming weeks.