Houthi missiles hold key to war and peace in Yemen

Sunday 27/11/2016
Conflict has now killed about 10,000 people

DUBAI - A United Nations’ peace plan for Yemen seeks to deprive the country’s armed Houthi move­ment of its missile ar­senal that Yemeni security sources say includes scores and maybe even hundreds of Soviet-era bal­listic missiles pointed at its foes in Saudi Arabia.
But whether the Iran-allied group will abandon the missiles hidden in mountainous ravines that have given it regional clout de­spite 20 months of punishing war is an open question.
The group possesses Scud mis­siles, shorter-range Tochka and an­ti-ship missiles and unguided Grad and Katyusha rockets, the security sources said. It has even manufac­tured smaller home-made rockets with names such as “Volcano” and “Steadfast”.
Retaining them could fortify the Houthis in a permanently armed enclave like fellow Iran-allied groups Hamas and Hezbol­lah, deepening the regional power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran and unnerving key ship­ping lanes such as the Gulf of Aden through which most of the world’s oil is transported.
Western and regional powers have long worried that complex internal rivalries and an active al- Qaeda branch could push Yemen towards chaos — fears that largely materialised last year.
A Saudi-led military coalition has staged thousands of air strikes on the Houthis since the group top­pled the internationally recognised government of President Abd Rab­bo Mansour Hadi and fanned out across the country in March 2015.
While Iran has strongly denied aiding the Houthis, Saudi concerns that the Houthis are the proxies of their regional arch-rival sparked their intervention.
The conflict has now killed about 10,000 people while hunger and disease stalk the country, which even before the war was awash with guns and plagued by poverty.
The Houthis may feel ceding Yemen’s most powerful weapons to neutral officers and becoming a political party as envisioned by the UN plan could leave them vulner­able to attack.
“When the Houthis seized Sana’a, they assumed total control of state institutions, key posts in the army and all the missiles,” a senior Yemeni security official said, speaking on condition of anonym­ity.
“Relinquishing the security ap­paratus will be the most impor­tant step towards what the coun­try needs most — putting the state back together,” the official added.
A 48-hour ceasefire aimed at paving the way for peace talks and a unity government expired No­vember 21st, the latest in a series of failed truces that leaves the fate of the UN plan in doubt.
Saudi-led bombings have repeat­edly struck underground missile silos, sending mushroom clouds exploding over Sana’a.
Early in the war, the coalition said it had destroyed 80% of the country’s stockpile of 300 ballistic missiles.
Yet the Houthis have managed to launch dozens of them at pro-government forces inside Yemen and at Saudi Arabia throughout the war, including just outside the holy city of Mecca, 600km north of the country.
While Scuds are notoriously in­accurate and most appear to have been shot down by Saudi Patriot missiles acquired from the United States, the projectiles have un­nerved Gulf Arab states.
Seized by the Houthis from army stores after their takeover, Yemen’s missiles were amassed over the course of decades in legal acquisi­tions from the Soviet Union and North Korea.
The Houthis have upgraded some missiles to maximise their range, and their technical savvy in local manufacture of smaller rock­ets and several deadly launches may suggest foreign help, military analysts say.
A Tochka ballistic missile attack last September killed more than 60 Emirati, Saudi and Bahraini troops outside the central city of Marib and another killed the Saudi intelli­gence chief for Yemen and a senior Emirati officer in the south-west.
An anti-Houthi tribal command­er said his scouts spotted what they said were members of the Iranian-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah aiding the Marib strike.
“My men reported spotting the missile launcher accompanied by several cars carrying Hezbollah advisers. We referred the information to the coalition but we got no response,” the commander said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition, Brigadier-General Ahmed Asseri, said it lacked evi­dence of a Hezbollah link to those attacks but believed the Houthis receive its members’ help.
“We have information that there are Lebanese working with the (Houthi) militias belonging to Hez­bollah… We know they are there; we know they help them renew and maintain the missiles,” Asseri said.
Yemeni, Western and Iranian of­ficials said Iran has stepped up transfers of missiles and other weapons to the group in recent months.
Brigadier-General Sharaf Luq­man, a spokesman for Yemen’s pro-Houthi military, denied in a statement this month that its forc­es had ever received Iranian aid.
Iran and Hezbollah have also strongly denied aiding them.
Houthi missiles have also rattled shipping passing through the Bab el Mandeb strait on the Red Sea. The group fired a conventional ship missile at an Emirati military craft on October 1st and a ballistic missile a week later at pro-govern­ment forces on tiny Mayun Island sitting astride the 25.6km-wide waterway’s narrowest point.
The United States bombed ra­dar stations along the Houthi-controlled coast after it said a US warship in the strait was unsuc­cessfully attacked by several land-to-sea missiles, an accusation the Houthis denied.
“It’s an extremely worrying sign, and the technology used from small speed boats to the missiles shows imitation, at the very least, of naval patterns Iran has used in the Gulf,” said one diplomat, who declined to be identified.
But expanding of the conflict seaward may seek to convince Saudi Arabia and its ally the United States that the Houthis refuse to cede their still-dominant political position inside Yemen despite the drawn-out and bloody conflict.
“It appears to be their way of say­ing, ‘look over here, we’re capable of internationalising this conflict — take our position seriously’,” an­other diplomat said.
A peace plan hammered out by the United Nations has exiled Hadi effectively resigning in exchange for the Houthis quitting main cit­ies and handing over arms to neu­tral army units.
While Hadi fiercely opposes the scheme, diplomats and Yemeni officials say his coalition backers have tired of the stalemated con­flict and could accept his exit if it removed the Houthi military threat to their borders.
The Houthis have accepted the UN deal, which would allow its seasoned fighters to retain their light weapons, something that could allow them to retain power in national politics.
“The Houthis have sought out guarantees that they won’t face a sudden attack from within Yemen and that they will retain a major political role,” a Yemeni diplomat­ic source said.
A Houthi official suggested its refusal to demobilise was a patri­otic resistance to foreign plots and guaranteed order.
“It is important to note here the conspiracy against the mis­sile forces in Yemen,” Hamid Rizq wrote on the group’s news web­site al-Masira last month. “(There has been) an American conspiracy to dismantle the Yemeni army through so-called ‘restructuring’… to pave the way for the spread of chaos.” Reuters