The five enemies of Iraq's uprising
First, a careful examination of the impasse in Iraq reveals that the Iranian regime, after failing to occupy Iraq despite an 8-year-long war, has made this occupation a pressing matter of national strategic objectives, since Iraq is the necessary gateway for projecting Iranian power beyond Iran’s borders, towards the west and south.
When the Americans invaded Iraq in 2003, they, knowingly or stupidly, offered Iranian Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's successor the opportunity to achieve, through deception and “taqiyya” (discretion), what his master could not gain by force. There is no doubt that the final capture of Iraq helped the mullahs' regime to strengthen their position in Syria and to expand to Lebanon and then to Yemen to besiege the Arab Gulf countries.
These facts argue that the Iranian regime is the first enemy of the Iraqi popular uprising and it will seek to crush it by any means. The Iranians cannot afford to lose Iraq, especially in their current suffocating situation. The reasons are many and are political, security-related, military and economic and, above all, because they know their imperial nationalistic dream lives and grows in Iraq but also dies there.
Second, along with the Iranian regime, the other rabid enemy of the Iraqi popular uprising is the Iraqi political, economic, security, military and media class entrenched in the Green Zone and living and breathing under the order, blessings and approval of the Iranian occupier. Its intent and resolve to wipe out any popular resistance are unsurpassed.
All current leaders, regardless of their loyalties, affiliations and positions, know that a victory by the Iraqi people in overthrowing their regime and establishing a genuine national popular authority free from foreign meddling means that they and their allies, and those who have profited from their corruption, whether Shias, Sunnis, Kurds, Muslims or Christians, will end up either behind bars, or dead, or fugitives from justice.
Imagine what Hadi al-Amiri, Nuri al-Maliki, Falih Alfayyadh and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, along with the Sunnis and Kurds of Iran, would have to do when they feel they are losing their privileges, positions, leadership, militias and money and will be reduced to a life of humiliation, poverty and loitering in the cafes of Tehran, Damascus, London and Istanbul.
Third, Masoud Barzani, along with his family members and other Kurdish politicians entangled with him in the sharing of Kurdistan, had no shame in declaring firm and unwavering support for Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, forgetting his primary responsibility for the death of hundreds of martyrs and the wounding and kidnapping of thousands of Iraqi unarmed peaceful youths whose only crime was to express their desire for a decent, fair and dignified living.
Barzani loudly rejected any hint at amending the fake and booby-trapped constitution drafted by himself and his allies, the leaders of the Iranian religious parties, to suit their partisan, family, ethnic and sectarian interests, especially those related to the gains of power in Kurdistan, even if the Kurdish masses were the last people to benefit from it.
Barzani, along with the heirs of Jalal Talabani and other leaders of the Kurdish parties, will not hesitate to join the war to defend the failed regime in Baghdad and to prevent the establishment of a popular Iraqi authority that is non-sectarian, non-racist, immune to corruption, free of any foreign trusteeship and that will refuse to let any party or foreign power loot the homeland’s wealth.
Didn't Masrour Barzani, Masoud Barzani’s son and the head of the government of Barzanistan, say in 2016 in an interview with the Washington Post that “the Kurds, as of May 6, 2016, are no longer Iraqi citizens”?
Fourth, Turkey and Arab and foreign countries, including the United States, Russia, China, European countries and others, are neither pleased nor comfortable with a victory by the Iraqi popular uprising because the uprising emerged from the depths of the Iraqi national consciousness and an irrepressible desire for a strong, fair, bold and people-backed authority that rejects being a pawn in the hands of anyone and refuses to let go of not a single right of the rights of the Iraqi state, of its sovereignty and of its people.
Even though those countries condemned the corruption and betrayal of the regime in Iraq it is, however, better for them and more suitable to their interests that it remains in place.
Fifth, the last enemies of the downtrodden masses are some well-intentioned, or even ill-intentioned, demonstrators who commit follies, assaults and raise slogans that harm the popular intifada and provide its enemies with ammunition and excuses to respond to it with even greater follies it doesn’t need right now.
The Iranians and their Iraqi proxies are ready and determined to fill Tahrir Square with cannons and rockets and to bomb the homes of protesters in Najaf, Karbala, Nasiriya and other cities with explosive barrels if things get out of hand for them.
However, because they know that waging a war of the kind Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah have waged and are waging in Syria is not going to be in their best interests, especially when the international and regional climates are definitely opposed to Iran and may open the gates of Iraq to the United States and Arab and foreign powers, in the hope of plunging the Iranian regime into another devastating hell.
The Iranians, along with their proxies and their agents, are betting on the factor of time. In a week, perhaps weeks or maybe months, the protesters will become bored, lose hope and become despondent. They will slowly retreat to the relative safety of their homes, as in other earlier uprisings.
The masses, unfortunately, can do nothing but wait. Perhaps the regime will implode under the weight of sanctions, unrest and sit-ins and the masses will have the last victory.
So, this is going to be a painful game of waiting for which party is going to run out of patience first and become the big loser.