Europe, US coordinate policies towards Iranian ultimatum
LONDON - Top diplomats from European powers and the United States will hold talks on Thursday to see how to revive the 2015 deal on Iran’s nuclear drive, days ahead of a deadline set by Tehran that could hinder the efforts by limiting inspections.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian will host his German and British counterparts in Paris, with America’s new top diplomat Antony Blinken joining via videoconference, the French foreign ministry said Wednesday.
Highlighting the tough path ahead, German Chancellor Angela Merkel voiced “concern” that Iran was failing to meet its obligations in telephone talks with President Hassan Rohani, her spokesman said in a statement.
Analysts say only a small window of opportunity remains to save the landmark deal, which was dealt a near-fatal blow when former US President Donald Trump walked out of the accord in 2018.
The administration of US President Joe Biden has said it is prepared to rejoin the deal and start lifting sanctions if Iran returns to full compliance, a precondition disputed by Tehran.
Adding to the tension, Iran plans to restrict some UN nuclear agency inspections if the US does not lift its sanctions — imposed since 2018 — by February 21, under the terms of a bill adopted by its parliament in December.
An IAEA report on Wednesday said Iran had informed the IAEA of plans to install more of its advanced IR-2m centrifuges at its main underground enrichment plant at Natanz, in a further move apparently meant to pile pressure on Washington.
The IAEA reported on February 1 that Iran had brought a second cascade, or cluster, of IR-2m machines online at Natanz, and was installing two more. The 2015 deal says Iran can only enrich with far less efficient, first-generation IR-1 centrifuges.
Iran recently began enriching uranium to 20% fissile purity at another site, Fordow, well above its previous level of 4.5% and the deal’s 3.67% limit, though still well before the 90% that is weapons grade. Iran had enriched to 20% before the deal.
Refining uranium to high levels of fissile purity is a potential pathway to nuclear bombs, though Iran has long said it its enrichment programme is for peaceful energy purposes only.
– Grossi’s last-ditch effort-
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi is to travel to Tehran on Saturday for talks with Iranian authorities to find a solution for continuing inspections in the country, the agency said.
It warned that the step threatened by Tehran would have “a serious impact on the IAEA’s verification and monitoring activities in the country.”
In Washington, State Department spokesman Ned Price said that Iran should provide “full and timely cooperation” with the IAEA.
“Iran should reverse the steps and refrain from taking others that would impact the IAEA assurances on which not only the United States, not only our allies and partners in the region, but the entire world relies,” he said, adding that Blinken saw an “important role” for the EU.
Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said it was “unlikely” the E3/US meeting on Thursday would produce a significant political or economic gesture to overcome the challenge posed by Iran’s threat to go ahead with imposing restrictions on the UN agency’s work.
“This deadline has been on the cards for months, and in absence of economic relief Iran’s leaders feel compelled to move ahead,” she said.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in Vienna in 2015, was based on Iran providing safeguards that it would not make an atomic bomb, in exchange for a gradual easing of international sanctions.
But Iran has stepped up its nuclear work in violation of the accord after US sanctions were reimposed as part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy to weaken the Iranian regime.
The UN nuclear watchdog said last week that Iran had started producing uranium metal in a new violation of the accord, prompting the European powers to warn that Tehran was “undermining the opportunity for renewed diplomacy.”
In her talks with Rohani, Merkel said that “now was the time for positive signals that create trust and increase the chances of a diplomatic solution.”
However, the Iranian presidency said Rohani in the call “criticised Europe’s performance” on its JCPOA commitments after the US withdrawal.
– Time pressure –
While Iran’s policy is ultimately determined by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranian presidential elections in June add another time pressure factor.
Rohani — a key advocate of nuclear diplomacy with global powers — is set to step down after serving the maximum two consecutive terms, and a more hardline figure is possibly in line to replace him.
“There is a short window of time to limit the damage that could ensue from Iran’s next steps, for example by reducing the impact of such moves on the quality of inspections by international monitors,” Geranmayeh said.
She said Washington should move in political and practical terms to show Iran that the Biden administration “is distancing itself from Trump-era maximum pressure.”
Khamenei emphasised Wednesday that Iran wanted to see action from the US administration that would help its economy.
“This time, only action, action. If we see action from the opposite side, we will act too,” he said.