Baghdad-Erbil showdown generates new dangers for Iraq

October 22, 2017
Perilous road. A member of the Kurdish peshmerga fighters gestures, north of Kirkuk, on October 19. (Reuters)

London- A showdown between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurd­istan Regional Govern­ment (KRG) in Erbil has generated a new set of dangers for Iraq, just as the country’s army and military allies edge closer to de­feating the Islamic State (ISIS).
Iraqi forces, backed by the pre­dominately Shia Popular Mobili­sation Forces (PMF) militias, have retaken most of the areas that had been under Kurdish peshmerga control since 2014, most notably the oil-rich, multi-ethnic city of Kirkuk.
Peshmerga fighters either fled or voluntarily handed over control to federal forces as part of a deal with Baghdad in most cases but instanc­es of chaos and clashes continue.
Tensions between Baghdad and Erbil mounted after KRG Presi­dent Masoud Barzani went ahead with an independence referendum for Iraq’s Kurdistan, plunging the country into further division and instability.
The fallout has allowed Iran, which wields great influence on many Shia and Kurdish politicians in Iraq, to play a greater role in shaping events. Tehran’s role is il­lustrated by reports of mediations brokered by Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s al-Quds force.
Prior to the referendum, key Shia politicians distanced them­selves from Iran and considered forming political alliances with secular, Sunni and Kurdish politi­cians. Now, Iran, which opposed the referendum, is being touted as the country that preserved Iraq’s territorial integrity.
As Iran’s role increases, the Unit­ed States seems to be helplessly playing catch-up while events un­fold beyond its control. US national security adviser H.R. McMaster said he warned Barzani that the referendum may benefit Iran and is ill-timed but the Kurdish leader went ahead with it.
Iraqi forces are readying to launch the final assault against ISIS militants in Anbar province but an­alysts said they fear developments might offer a second life to ISIS or create conditions for similar jihad­ist groups to emerge. The tensions and future clashes between Iraqi forces and peshmerga fighters could allow ISIS — their common enemy — to resurface elsewhere.
There are also fears that a Kurd­ish civil war could break out as the northern region’s main rivals — the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurd­istan (PUK) — accuse each other of treason and responsibility for the region’s woes. Most peshmerga fighters are loyal to one faction or the other.
The two sides were embroiled in a civil war from 1994-97, when the region was split between the KDP, which controlled Erbil and Dohuk, and the PUK, which controlled Su­laimaniyah. Today, commentators are talking about the possibility of two regional administrations re­placing the KDP-dominated KRG.
The KRG’s cancellation of Kurd­ish parliamentary and presidential elections, which had been sched­uled for November 1, is likely to in­flame tensions among the region’s Kurds. The Gorran Movement (Movement for Change) supporters are most likely to be affected. The party has the second largest num­ber of seats in parliament, after the KDP, but no peshmerga fighters are loyal to it or its top officials.