Arab-American voters: Clinton 60%, Trump 26%

Sunday 06/11/2016

For years, Arab-Ameri­can voters slightly leaned towards the Democratic Party but were swing voters in national and local elections. This was the pattern we observed in the early years of our more than two decades of biannual surveys of the commu­nity’s voting behaviour. It is no longer the case, as Arab Ameri­cans have increasingly come to identify themselves as Democrats and vote for Democratic Party candidates.
In a book I wrote in 2001 on the values and voting patterns of a number of ethnic American communities (What Ethnic Americans Really Think, based on polling conducted by my broth­er’s group, Zogby International), we found that most ethnics leaned Democrat but shared a value system that ran counter to the political ideas offered by what were then called “moderate Republicans” and “New Demo­crats”. The tendency of both was to combine fiscal conservatism with social liberalism.
Many ethnic voters, on the other hand, embraced beliefs that were the exact opposite. They were fiscally progressive and socially more conservative. They said that government played a constructive role in society and they were, therefore, supportive of strengthening programmes such as Social Security and Medicare, investing in public education and expanding health care coverage.
At the same time, there were people running small businesses with extended family networks who said they believed in building strong communities and, therefore, had belief systems that reflected those values.
Beginning in 2002 and continu­ing during the next decade, the community drifted away from the Republican Party. There were a number of factors that fuelled this drift. Initially, it was the post-9/11 reaction of the George W. Bush administration that compromised the civil liberties of recent immigrants, followed by the war in Iraq and then the hard-line rhetoric that came to dominate the Republican Party. The first to be affected were Arab Americans who were more recent immigrants and Muslim.
While Arab Americans who had been born in the United States had stronger party identification, those who were immigrants were classic swing voters. But, as our polling demonstrated, all parts of the community were repulsed by and felt threatened by the increased harsh anti-Arab and anti-Muslim rhetoric.
In our most recent poll of Arab Americans, 50% of those sur­veyed said they had personally experienced discrimination because of their ethnicity and 53% expressed concern that they might face discrimination in the future.
In reality, it might be said that it was not the community that drifted away from the Republi­cans, it was the party that was galloping away from Arab Americans. This parting of the ways especially intensified during the elections from 2008 to 2016, culminating in the nomination of Donald Trump. The effect of this can be seen in the results of this year’s Arab American Institute (AAI) poll.
In an October poll of likely Arab-American voters, Democrat Hillary Clinton smothers Trump, 60% to 26% in their choice for president.
Commissioned by the AAI and conducted by Zogby Analytics, the survey indicated that the movement of Arab Americans from the Republican Party has continued. Arab Americans now favour the Democratic Party over the Republicans by two to one, with 52% identifying as Demo­crats and 26% saying they are Republicans. When asked which party they prefer to control the US Congress, by 54% to 27%, Arab Americans pick the Democrats.
When asked why they would vote for either Clinton or Trump, Arab Americans gave surprisingly similar responses. More than 40% of Clinton voters said they were supporting her either because of party loyalty or because they liked her domestic policies. Another one-third said they were voting against Trump. Only one in ten identified foreign policy as the reason they were supporting Clinton.
Supporters of both Clinton and Trump identified jobs and the economy as the most important issue in determining their vote but that was where the similarity ended. Democrats pointed to gun violence, health care and Social Security and Medicare as next in importance while Republicans identified combating terrorism, the budget deficit and controlling government spending and immigration as their next most important concerns.
When asked which issues they felt Clinton would be best able to address, Arab Americans added improving education and race relations to the mix.
What emerges from this survey is that while Arab-American Democrats and Republicans share the basic beliefs of their respec­tive parties, the former are growing in number while the latter are shrinking. The bottom line is that while not in love with Clinton, as they were with Barack Obama in 2008, most Arab Americans have come to feel more comfortable voting for Democrats because they feel more aligned with the issues and values of that party.
Especially interesting is the fact that the gap that once existed between the immigrant and native-born and the Catholic and Muslim components of the Arab-American community has, over time, disappeared. Party identification and candidate preferences are largely the same for all groups. This has meant that immigrants are more comfortable identifying as Democrats and are less likely to be swing voters. At the same time, the once more evenly matched party identifica­tion of the native-born group has changed rather significantly.